Risk-Based Decision Making

• Quantify as best you can but don't get hung up on it.

• Always have an “experienced” reality check (people tend to drive the analysis to the answer they want to get).

• Have a consistent methodology (use a tool)

• Discount production benefits by at least 50% (nothing every works as planned)

• Don't discount judgment and experience especially when there is not enough data to support the decision.

• Go in with your eyes open and don't punish the team when they are wrong.

• Put decisions in terms of money.